Friday, February 17, 2012

Bricking everything..

I wish I had some positive post to deliver, as that would mean things in general/on average were going well... But unfortunately I'm still not even in the black for 2012 and variance has a funny way of trumping some other things that would otherwise cause my day to finish on a high note... Matty (MrPaintball) and Nick (Frenzuh) moved in during January, and its been nice having solid players to discuss hands/spots with who have a deep understanding of the game and the swings we can go on. We've all had more final two table finishes during MTT's with no close than we care to count and in general the IP address is running pretty cold. I've been getting concerned with my $300+ SNG results pre rakeback - As I've been getting murdered for what feels like my entire sample.. I ran the hand histories through HEM to take a better look with the adjusted EV as well as take a better look at just how many of these games I've played.. (For those that don't know, green is winnings and red is expected value)

As you can see I'm not a super huge winner in these games according to my adjusted EV, but even breaking even playing $1k 6m and $500 6m with the rakeback I have (these results are filtered without rakeback) should produce a higher hourly than replacing the tables with $60 18m where I likely make around $6 a game after rakeback. (Maybe not that's a guess) By now I'm aware that adjusted ev isn't everything - But I am also aware that it is a reasonable indicator and I'm only stuck about 50 buyins (which I've lost in a day playing games I crush) , so for now I'll keep plugging and hope it turns around :) Good luck to everyone else!!!

Quick edit** This is for all games $300+, I'm positive in terms of buyins before and after ev for 6m at this buyin level... So 9m are apparently going really badly..**